• Complete an inventory and analysis of existing spatial datasets on temporal land-use change patterns in Cameroon, Ghana and Mozambique and country-disaggregated data on deforestation embodied in international trade and consumption • Conduct research in at least four deforestation hotspots in each country to quantify the impact of different agricultural commodities and end markets on deforestation • Analyse the dynamics and governance of select PCSs in at least two deforestation hotspots per country, including the role of different types of actors, markets, and capital sources in driving expansion • Identify alternative governance options (e.g. industry standards, fiscal instruments, [territorial] certification, and public–private governance arrangements) and business models to reduce the forest footprint of agricultural commodity expansion in target countries, including analysis of potential risks and opportunities for smallholder inclusion • Carry out consultations with diverse stakeholder groups (e.g. industry, smallholder representatives, civil society organizations, multi-stakeholder platforms and consumer and producer country governments) to evaluate the viability of alternative governance options and identify suitable implementation mechanisms linked to national policy dialogues • Recommend agricultural sector programs to minimize the impact on deforestation

• Construct independent but interlinked VPA and FLEGT licensing Theories of Change (ToC), linking VPA and FLEGT licensing to potential changes in five areas o Append FLEGT licensing ToC to the VPA ToC o Produce first ToC at a global level o Create country-specific ToCs • Determine indicators of interest for each result area and intermediate outcomes o Include a maximum of two indicators per result area, and one per intermediate outcome o Determine methods to measure indicators o Consult global and national secondary data for information on indicators o Collect primary data collection as required • Choose countries to serve as the control group o Determine selection criteria • Design IMS o Use the ToC and the indicators for the five areas as a basis for the system o Examine historical data for long-term trends, using 2017 as the baseline year o Produce dashboard • Conduct ex-ante and ex-post impact assessments of VPA and FLEGT licensing o Elucidate the reasons for any evidence/non-evidence of impact by using more rigorous impact evaluation methods to examine countries in depth o Consider:  Impact on all five areas of interest.  Implementation integrity – institutional effectiveness (process evaluation) examining implementing bodies, legality assurance systems, etc.  Intermediate outcomes (impact evaluation) o Develop methods to determine causality, dependent on data availability and budget constraints o Establish baseline from the first results of the IMS together with intermediate outcomes data

• Develop an open access database for potential investors of sustainable agricultural, agroforestry and forestry practices, and attendant risks • Research, design and test a simplified sustainability verification system • Test and develop an open access securitization software based on a portfolio of pilot loans

• Conduct a systematic review on the relative contributions of wild meat, insects and fish to local diets • Conduct dietary recall surveys of approximately 2400 mothers with children under 5 years in five regions (600 in each region) across the Congo Basin during both wet and dry seasons • Host national stakeholder meetings to disseminate project results and discuss the importance of animal source foods in local diets and the need for nutrition-sensitive forest, wildlife and fisheries policies

• Conduct research to understand the evolution, and current cost and benefit structure of domestic, cross-border and international value chains of woodfuels (firewood and charcoal) • Analyse the supply and demand of woodfuels in 3–5 big cities in Central and West Africa, including mapping woodfuel supply basins • Identify constraints in woodfuel value chains to help improve the opportunities for women (individually and as collectives), and small and medium enterprises to access and benefit from existing and potential new markets • Conduct a review to assess the implications of the new transnational regulatory frameworks in the context of state-led efforts to develop non-traditional agricultural export commodities • Conduct a review of the state of, and trade-offs among, the multiple values and functions of agroforestry landscapes, given the growing pressures to mechanize agriculture and meet rural energy needs in selected countries • Develop and test new policy options, and promote improved regulations and standards

• Complete a review of relevant documents such as legal and policy frameworks, conservation strategies and management plans in order to analyse protected area governance structures and arrangements • Conduct reviews of at least one targeted country, such as Namibia, where governance regimes have yielded well-documented successes in addressing conservation–development trade-offs • Generate evidence of actual outcomes and governance/institutional drivers through field studies deploying mixed methods (such as intra-household interviews, interviews with relevant agency officials and managers at multiple levels, ecological studies to evaluate landscape-level trends in forest degradation, biodiversity status and ecosystem services) • Analyse institutions at landscape level, incorporating descriptions of: o formal and informal institutions that control the human activities in each protected area o of the way tasks and responsibilities are allocated among levels of government o the role of diverse actors protected area management • Conduct gender analysis to identify whether, and how, the implementation of protected area governance arrangements may affect interactions among men and women • Host scenario development workshops to formulate options and action plans in support of joint conservation–development outcomes • Host knowledge-sharing and exchange workshops to support lesson learning among protected area managers of effective governance arrangements • Develop tools and guidebooks to support capacity development of protected area managers • Assess alternative models for protecting and conserving threatened habitats and species, narrowing the trade-offs between conservation and livelihoods/development outcomes